blog 3.6

1. Bernie Sanders 
2. 21.2%
3. that margin of error means Biden could actually top the field in the state; and broadly, Nevada is a state that is notoriously difficult to poll accurately.
4. In both previous 2020 Nevada polls, the state seemed to be torn between Biden and Sanders. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll from early January showed Biden in the lead with 19 percent support, Sanders with 18 percent, and their nearest competitor — Warren — 8 percentage points behind. A Fox News poll taken at the beginning of January showed Biden coming in with 23 percent support and Sanders at 17 percent, with Warren and Steyer 5 percentage points behind the senator from Vermont.
5. After the 2004 election, the state switched from holding primaries to caucuses, and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party’s demographic make-up. 

6. And as FiveThirtyEight’s Clare Malone has reported, part of the difficulty of Nevada polling is that’s it’s simply harder to talk to people. The state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.

7. Nevada gets little attention from pollsters. 

8. The state also has a newly instituted four-day early voting period that attempts to model caucusing by using a system modeled on ranked-choice voting- like early voting

9. heavy reliance on the tourism and casino industries

10. a sizable segment of likely voters does not have local cell phone numbers, numbers in public records may belong to those no longer living in the state, and newer residents are less likely to be registered — or even eligible — to vote. The need for pollsters to have staff conducting field work over a 24-hour period rather than in evenings like in other states, as well as the costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models, means polling in Nevada is substantially more expensive to produce than in other states.

blog 3.5- civil servants

6. What was Gordon Sondland's job in the Trump Administration? 
7. What did Ambassador Sondland testify during the impeachment investigation?
8. What was Sondland's background before becoming the ambassador?
9. Who else might the Trump Administration take action against, according to this article?
1. Vindman is a top Ukraine expert on the national security council. 
2. He testified that he found the call inappropriate and that he saw it as "improper for the president of the United States to demand a foreign government investigate a U.S. citizen and political opponent." 
3. White House removed Vindman and reassigned his brother. 
4. The White House is framing this not as payback against Vindman but a broader shrinking of the NSC staff. 
5. Officials will be more fearful to speak out or testify against the president if he acts inappropriately again. 
6. Sonland was a major Trump donor before getting the ambassador's job and pressured officials in Kyiv to announce an investigation into former VP.
7. Sondland's testimony also made it clear that the scheme to pressure Ukraine was not some rogue. operation masterminded by Giuliani alone. He provided extensive documentation, including emails and text messages, showing that his personal efforts in service of arranging the quid pro quo were authorized at the highest levels of the administration. 
8.  He was a major Trump donor. 
9.  The trump administration might take action against some of the other key witnesses. 

blog 3.4

1. Phase one is the four early stages in February which have a paltry number of delegates but an extraordinary impact on the race's overall narrative. Phase two is the briefest but the most consequential.

2. monday february 3- iowa, tuesday february 11- new hampshire, saturday febraury 22- nevada, saturay febrauary 29- south carolina

3. since they have such a small number of delegates, it is impossible for anyone to build up a significcant lead in this phase

4. 3979

5. south, new england, the west, and the mid west 

6. march 10- michigan, washington, missouri, mississippi, idaho, north dakota

march 17- florida, ohio, illinois, arizona

7. the main change is that california moved from an early june primary late in the process, up to super tuesday. 

8. this phase slows down quite a bit and will be almost a three month slog. 

9. iowa and new hampshire staked their claims very quickly and they now narrow down their large and confusing set of options to a few contenders before most of the country votes. 

10. they allot all delegates proportionally, with no winner-take-all contests permitted.